Reliability estimation and prediction of multi-state components and coherent systems

This paper discusses the multi-state coherent system composed of multi-state components. First, using the min cut sets or min path sets, we present our simulation algorithm, instead of the general structure function, to calculate the probability that the system is in a specified state. Second, we check the components per period, e.g. one check per year, to obtain the state sequences of all components. When the state sequences are Markovian chains, we can predict the reliability of the components in several periods, such as the probability that the components are in specified states. Also, we give two methods to compute the system reliability in a number of periods: one employs the states of the components in these periods, which can be predicted by the state transition probability matrixes of the components; the other uses the state transition probability matrix of the system obtained by the simulated states of the components. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.